In July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimate Henry Hub natural gas spot prices for June, July, and August this year will common $2.37 per MMBtu. If seen, this worth could be the lowest summer average Henry Hub natural gas value since 1998. EIA expects Henry Hub pure gasoline costs can be down 55 cents/MMBtu, about 19% decrease than last summer’s average.
In the July STEO, EIA revised its forecast for 2019 Henry Hub natural gas prices down from the June STEO following three consecutive months of value declines. Prices in June averaged $2.40/MMBtu and have declined by 19% since March.
Spot prices at key trading hubs throughout the nation have traded near the Henry Hub basis. Costs on the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading level for New York City and the Chicago Citygate have been each at $2.12/MMBtu, the lowest June average price and a lower of 25% and 23%, respectively, from June 2018. The PG&E Citygate close to San Francisco had the highest June average value at $2.59/MMBtu, a 14% decrease from last June.
The recent natural gas value declines reflect comparatively mild weather for the start of summer that led to decrease than anticipated natural gas-fired electricity generation, which allowed pure gasoline stock injections to outpace the earlier five-year average price. Between April and June, cumulative net injections into underground storage fields have exceeded the five-year common by 41%, decreasing the present five-yr common deficit by greater than 300 Bcfg. Along with the current worth declines, the lower cost forecast reflects EIA’s updated evaluation of U.S. drilling activity and good average productivity, each of which is higher than beforehand assumed.